Crypto betting’s impact on Trump vs. Harris presidential election

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election heads into its final stretch, the race between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic contender Kamala Harris has captured global attention. In an era marked by unprecedented political shifts and economic volatility, new factors like crypto prediction markets and financial predictions are shaping public perception. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allow people to bet on the race’s outcome, but these markets have also influenced how many view the candidates’ odds.

Rise of prediction markets in politics

Prediction markets, particularly those based on cryptocurrency, have grown popular in political analysis circles. Unlike traditional polling, these markets reflect a collective anticipation and sometimes react more sensitively to real-time events. Their data has become a valuable, if unconventional, resource for political analysis.

Donald Trump has branded himself the crypto president to appeal to younger, crypto-savvy voters. With crypto enthusiasts largely populating platforms like Polymarket, his odds initially climbed as he aligned his platform with digital finance and independence from centralised institutions.

Throughout October, Trump’s odds of winning soared to 67% on Polymarket, reflecting strong momentum for his campaign. Several factors contributed to this peak, including Trump’s appeal to the crypto community and concerns over the economy. Kamala Harris’s odds improved after an Iowa poll conducted by Ann Selzer, a respected pollster, placed her three points ahead of Trump among likely voters. This unexpected boost shifted prediction market odds, giving her campaign new momentum.

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, recently warned of a looming financial crisis, a message that resonated with both Trump supporters and economic conservatives. This financial emergency warning reflects rising concerns over market stability and may indirectly impact how voters and prediction market bettors view Trump’s policies.

Polymarket’s betting system uses the USDC stablecoin, which is pegged to the U.S. dollar. While it attracts international users, U.S.-based users are restricted from participating directly due to regulations. Despite these limitations, Polymarket has seen over $3 billion wagered on the election outcome, underscoring the platform’s influence and popularity among crypto enthusiasts outside the U.S.

Insights from big players

As of the latest data, Trump’s odds of winning on Polymarket have fallen to 54%, with Harris trailing closely at 45%. Meanwhile, Kalshi’s platform shows a similar trend with Trump at 52% and Harris at 48%. This narrowing gap between Trump and Harris highlights the uncertain outcome of this election, as well as the influence prediction markets have on perceived candidate viability.

Notably, one France-based user bet $30 million on Trump winning the election. The individual stated that the wager isn’t about influencing the election but rather about financial gain. Such high-stakes betting highlights the prediction market’s allure to big investors, making it a high-stakes, globally watched arena.

With the 2024 election rapidly approaching, the race between Trump and Harris has become a showcase of the power of prediction markets and financial uncertainty. As Trump and Harris vie for the White House, these markets provide a rare lens into the economic and political factors shaping voter expectations.